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    The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You

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    We’re currently experiencing historically low mortgage rates. Over the last fifty years, the average on a Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been 7.76%. Today, that rate is 2.81%. Flocks of homebuyers have been taking advantage of these remarkably low rates over the last twelve months. However, there’s no guarantee rates will remain this low much longer.

    Whenever we try to forecast mortgage rates, we should consider the advice of Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:

    “You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and/or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”

    Many things impact mortgage rates. The economy, inflation, and Fed policy, just to name a few. That makes forecasting rates difficult. However, there’s one metric that has held up over the last fifty years – the relationship between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury rate. Here’s a graph detailing this relationship since Freddie Mac started keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:salisbury md realtor salisbury md real estate wicomico county real estate real estate wicomico county md long and foster real estate salisbury md sussex county real estate sussex county homes for sale sussex county houses for sale sussex county land for sale sussex county zillow sussex county mls weichert nj sussex county houses in sussex county for sale sussex county real estate mls sussex county mls listings sussex county real estate listings wicomico county real estate homes for sale in wicomico county md eastern shore real estate eastern shore homes for sale eastern shore waterfront homes for sale houses for sale eastern shore eastern shore realty eastern shore land for sale eastern shore waterfront property for sale eastern shore homes eastern shore farms for sale eastern shore realtors eastern shore real estate for sale eastern shore houses houses for sale in wicomico county md wicomico county homes for sale land for sale in wicomico county md houses for sale in wicomico county houses for sale wicomico county brandon brittingham brandon brittingham realtor brandon brittingham real estate brandon brittingham long and fosterThere’s no denying the close relationship between the two. Over the last five decades, there’s been an average 1.7-point spread between these two rates. It’s this long-term relationship that has some forecasters projecting an increase in mortgage rates as we move throughout the year. This is based on the recent surge in the 10-year treasury rate shown here:salisbury md realtor salisbury md real estate wicomico county real estate real estate wicomico county md long and foster real estate salisbury md sussex county real estate sussex county homes for sale sussex county houses for sale sussex county land for sale sussex county zillow sussex county mls weichert nj sussex county houses in sussex county for sale sussex county real estate mls sussex county mls listings sussex county real estate listings wicomico county real estate homes for sale in wicomico county md eastern shore real estate eastern shore homes for sale eastern shore waterfront homes for sale houses for sale eastern shore eastern shore realty eastern shore land for sale eastern shore waterfront property for sale eastern shore homes eastern shore farms for sale eastern shore realtors eastern shore real estate for sale eastern shore houses houses for sale in wicomico county md wicomico county homes for sale land for sale in wicomico county md houses for sale in wicomico county houses for sale wicomico county brandon brittingham brandon brittingham realtor brandon brittingham real estate brandon brittingham long and fosterThe spread between the two is now 1.53, indicating mortgage rates could rise. Actually, a bump-up in rate has already begun. As Joel Kan, Associate VP of Economic Forecasting for the Mortgage Bankers Association, reveals:

    “Expectations of faster economic growth and inflation continue to push Treasury yields & mortgage rates higher. Since hitting a survey low in December, the 30-year fixed rate has slowly risen, & last week climbed to its highest level since Nov 2020.”

    How high might they go in 2021?

    No one knows for sure. Sam Khater, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac, recently suggested:

    “While there are multiple temporary factors driving up rates, the underlying economic fundamentals point to rates remaining in the low 3% range for the year.”

    What does this mean for you?

    Whether you’re a first-time buyer or you’ve purchased a home before, even an increase of half a point in mortgage rate (2.81 to 3.31%) makes a big difference. On a $300,000 mortgage, that difference (including principal and interest) is $82 a month, $984 a year, or a total of $29,520 over the life of the home loan.

    Bottom Line

    Based on the 50-year symbiotic relationship between treasury rates and mortgage rates, it appears mortgage rates could be headed up this year. It may make sense to buy now rather than wait.

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